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That could bring the total bill to $10.8 billion, compared with about $5 billion this year, including payments on the recent agreements.Foreign reserves, which fell 30 percent last year and stand at eight-year lows of about $29 billion, are seen falling in the second half of 2014 after Argentina s main farm exports, soy and corn, are harvested and sold in the first half.Payments Payments will increase next year and it s going to be tight to pay, said Bank of America economist Marcos Buscaglia in New York, who sees reserves falling to $26.7 billion by the end of 2014.Official data on total debt payments is open to interpretation, economists say, as it includes a medley of inter-public-sector and international loans that are usually rolled over and therefore would not affect reserves.Reuters has stripped out most of these loans but not all, such as those held by the pension system for which a clear breakdown of bond holdings in dollars is not readily available.Latin America s No. 3 economy, which slid into a recession in the first three months of this year, has been burning up its reserves to pay debt and finance imports. Analysts say there are short-term fixes that Argentina can use to tide over cash flow problems as long as it soon regains access to global credit markets it has been shut out of ever since its default on $100 billion of bonds in 2002..To do that, it needs to reach a deal with the holdout investors who have refused its attempts to restructure their bonds and who last week scored another victory against the country in U.S. courts. All the deals sealed in 2014 increase a lot the debt services that Argentina will face up to 2019, Buscaglia said. If Argentina can tap markets, it will be a manageable schedule. President Cristina Fernandez says rulings that Argentina pay one group of holdouts $1.33 billion in cash would prompt new claims of up to $15 billion - an absurd sum she says it can t pay.After years of refusing to negotiate with the holdouts, Argentina says it is now ready to talk. If it does not pay or reach a deal, U.S. courts will prevent it from servicing debt held by the more than 90 percent of creditors who agreed to restructure.The next payment is due on June 30 and Argentina has a month-long grace period, meaning it could be in technical default by the end of July.DIRE CASH-FLOWArgentina s cash-flow situation looks more dire if only liquid net reserves are considered. Those are the headline figure minus gold, IMF special drawing rights or bank reserve requirement deposits, depending on definitions.Analyst estimates for net reserves range between $14.7 billion and $21 billion. There is no official estimate. Argentina is near bankruptcy with net foreign exchange reserves at only three months of import coverage, said Siobhan Morden, head of Latin America strategy at Jefferies in New York, which estimates net reserves at $16.5 billion.A common rule of thumb is that a country should have reserves to cover at least three months worth of imports in order to protect it from external crisis. Argentine imports stood at $5.9 billion in May. This metric shows their stock is quite low and they still have quite significant dollar liabilities. These are serious financing constraints on paying these holdout liabilities, Morden said.That said, Argentina still has options to deal with the impending credit crunch. It could roll over much of its Boden 2015 bonds, which are governed by local law, as long as investors remain keen on high-yielding Argentine debt. It would still have to pay the interest but at least not all the amortization costs.Elections at the end of 2015 are expected to bring in a more investor-friendly government and that plus a shift over recent months toward more pragmatic policies has improved investor appetite. The market quickly absorbed billions in Argentine bonds issued last month to compensate Repsol for the taking of its YPF subsidiary. Only in the worst case scenario would Argentina pay (the amortization of the Boden 2015) with reserves, said Gustavo Ber, an analyst at local consultancy Estudio Ber. Many investors could be interested in rolling over the debt. Argentina s central bank could borrow from foreign banks or raise the foreign currency deposits requirement for local banks to get its hands on foreign currency.ImportThe government could also raise import restrictions to stop capital outflows and devalue the currency again to boost exports, though these measures would risk fuelling one of the world s highest inflation rates and hurting consumption. Restrictions on imports of energy or intermediate goods for manufacturers could also further hurt the economy. You may have trouble by 2017 if this situation persists for three years in a row, said analyst Mauro Roca of Goldman Sachs. But a lot could happen before then. 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Economists are forecasting the economy will expand at about a 3.5 percent annual rate in the second quarter.But the horrible start to 2014 will drag down the year s overall economic output.Last week, the International Monetary Fund reduced its estimate for U.S. growth this year to a modest 2 percent from an April projection of 2.8 percent.The first-quarter contraction was the worst since the economy shrank at a 5.4 percent annual rate in the first quarter of 2009, near the depths of the Great Recession.The economy has contracted only one other time by an annualized rate of 1.3 percent in the first quarter of 2011 since the recession ended five years ago. A recession generally is defined as two straight quarters of negative growth.Economists knew the recovery stumbled in the first quarter of this year as heavy snow and bitter cold in much of the nation closed many businesses.The new data showed things were worse than anticipated.Consumer spending rose just 1 per cent in the first quarter, down sharply from last month s estimate of 3.1 percent. It was the smallest gain in consumer spending since the fourth quarter of 2009, the Commerce Department said.Consumer spending accounts for more than two-thirds of total economic activity. It had been up 3.3 percent in the fourth quarter of last year, when the economy grew at a 2.6 per cent annual rate.In addition, US exports plummeted 8.9 per cent in the first quarter, down from last month s estimate of a 6 per cent drop.Exports hadn t fallen by that much since the first quarter of 2009. 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